根据一项最新国际调查研究，在美国因气候变化形成的飓风所造成的经济损失远比想象的要多。

　　苏塞克斯大学经济学教授Richard Tol和阿姆斯特丹、墨西哥城的同事一起研究分析了美国发生于1900年-2005年的飓风数据。

　　根据他们在网上发布的最新数据，他们认为之前的报告高估了社会经济因素的影响——比如沿海地区经济增长与人口，这些很容易受飓风影响——同时他们低估了全球变暖带来的影响。

　　研究人员估计飓风在美国造成的损失，仅在2005年就有20-140亿可以归咎为气候变化上。

　　Tol教授说：“数据分析对气候研究人员而言并非最有力的技巧。有时候这会导致对气候变化及其影响的夸大。”

　　“可是在提交的《政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告》中，先前的数据夸大了飓风对经济增长与人口造成的危害，再重新分析那些数据，我们发现它所具有的倾向和研究气候的的倾向很相似。”

　　因自然灾害，特别是飓风所导致的经济损失，在过去的十年当中不断增加。但是这些损失究竟是因社会经济因素导致的，还是极端天气导致的，目前仍无定论。

　　Climate change plays a bigger part than thought in the rising economic cost of hurricanes in the USA, according to a new international study.

　　Professor Richard Tol, Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex, worked with colleagues in Amsterdam and Mexico City to reanalyse data on US hurricanes between 1900 and 2005.

　　In a study published online in Nature Geoscience, they concluded that previous reports have overestimated the impact of socioeconomic factors - such as increases in wealth and population in coastal regions that are vulnerable to hurricanes – and have downplayed the role of global warming.

　　The authors estimate that US$2–14 billion of US hurricane losses incurred in 2005 alone may be attributable to climate change.

　　Professor Tol said "Statistical analysis is not the strongest skill among climate researchers. Sometimes this leads to an exaggeration of climate change and its impacts.

　　“Here, however, it appears that previous analyses, recently summarized in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, have exaggerated the impact of population and economic growth on hurricane damages. Re-analysing the data, we find that there is a residual trend that looks remarkably like the trend in temperature.”

　　Economic losses from natural disasters, and in particular hurricanes, have risen over the past decades. However, whether these increases are caused by socioeconomic factors or by an increase in extreme weather events has been contentious.